What is Food Security?
Food security in South Africa is defined as the physical, social, and economic access by all South Africans always to sufficient, safe, and nutritious foods to meet their dietary needs and preferences to lead an active and healthy lifestyle.
Source: FAO (1996), DAFF (2002)
The Six Pillars of Food Security
Availability
Adequate production, storage, and import/export capacity across field crops, horticulture, and livestock.
Access
Affordability, household purchasing power, and market distribution of food products.
Utilization
Nutritional quality, food safety, and dietary diversity for healthy lifestyles.
Stability
Resilient food supply during shocks like drought, disease outbreaks, and economic crises.
Sustainability
Long-term environmental viability, farm profitability, and resource efficiency.
Governance
Evidence-based policy coordination, institutional support, and informal sector oversight.
What is FMD?
Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals including cattle, sheep, goats, and pigs.
FMD does not directly threaten human health but has severe economic consequences through trade restrictions, loss of export markets, and reduced livestock productivity.
Current Status (January 2026)
South Africa lost its FMD-free status in 2019. As of January 2026, there are 407 active outbreak locations across 6 provinces.
407
Active Outbreaks
6
Provinces Affected
SAT1, SAT2, SAT3
Serotypes Present
Affected Provinces
How FMD Impacts Food Security
Impact by Pillar
Availability
39% decline in beef production; 17% herd reduction projected
Access
67% beef price increase; R12B+ income loss in cattle sector
Utilization
32% reduction in beef protein per capita; increased reliance on poultry
Stability
Price volatility increased 275%; trade uncertainty persists
Sustainability
15-20% of cattle farmers at risk of exit; 10+ year herd reconstruction
Governance
Veterinary capacity strained; 25% movement permit non-compliance
Open Outbreaks
107 resolved with WOAH
Provinces Affected
2 never affected
Animals Affected
~285K cattle infected
Vaccinated
R72M invested (Phase 1)
Active Serotypes
SAT1, SAT2, SAT3
Production Gap
MT deficit (pessimistic scenario)
Economic Loss
USD cumulative (2021-2030)
Export Decline
Top 5 markets (2021-2025)
Chicken Dependency
Peak 2025 (HPAI risk)
Interpretation: The data shows a significant decline in both beef production and national herd size since 2021. Production fell from 700,000 MT in 2021 to a projected low of 580,000 MT in 2025 (17% decline), while the herd contracted from 13.5 million to 11.9 million head. This reflects the direct impact of FMD outbreaks on livestock mortality, movement restrictions limiting market access, and reduced breeding due to biosecurity concerns. Recovery is projected from 2026 onwards as vaccination coverage reaches 75-80%, with production expected to return to 2021 levels by 2030.
Interpretation: Export volumes collapsed from 28,500 MT in 2021 to just 1,500 MT in 2025 under the pessimistic scenario, representing a 95% decline. This reflects the loss of FMD-free status and subsequent trade bans, particularly from China (largest market, banned May 2025). The optimistic scenario assumes successful regional zoning recognition and partial market re-entry, showing exports recovering to 18,000 MT by 2025. The divergence between scenarios highlights the critical importance of disease control and international negotiations for market access restoration.
Interpretation: Beef's share of protein consumption declined from 28% in 2021 to 15% by 2025, while chicken dominance increased from 55% to 68%. This substitution pattern reflects consumer response to beef price increases and reduced availability. Per capita beef consumption fell from 8.5 kg to 5.8 kg annually. The Protein Diversity Index dropped from 4.0 to 3.2, indicating reduced dietary diversity. This over-reliance on poultry creates systemic food security risk, as South Africa also faces Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks.
Interpretation: Domestic beef prices show a counterintuitive decline under the pessimistic scenario, falling from R95/kg in 2021 to R50/kg by 2025. This paradox reflects oversupply in the domestic market due to export bans forcing producers to sell locally, combined with reduced consumer purchasing power. The optimistic scenario shows prices remaining more stable at R75/kg as controlled exports maintain supply-demand balance. Both scenarios project price recovery toward R95/kg by 2030 as markets normalize and export access is restored.
Province | Total | Open | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| KwaZulu-Natal | 293 | 274 | Emergency |
| Gauteng | 54 | 54 | Emergency |
| Eastern Cape | 40 | 39 | Active |
| North West | 44 | 26 | Active |
| Mpumalanga | 29 | 9 | Active |
| Free State | 46 | 5 | Active |
| Northern Cape | 0 | 0 | FMD-Free |
| Western Cape | 0 | 0 | FMD-Free |
| Limpopo | 8 | 0 | Resolved |